1. Latest Freight Rate & Transit Time Updates
Container freight rates on major routes of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, have risen again. The all-in rate for 40HC containers has increased by $150–200 month-on-month.
Meanwhile, transit cycles have lengthened. The lead time for core routes has extended from 14–18 days to 14–20 days. Spanning over 4,700 kilometers, this Eurasian land-sea intermodal corridor has entered a new market-oriented pricing cycle amid evolving geopolitical situations and restructured supply and demand dynamics.
Freight rates on all trunk lines have maintained a consistent upward trend.
2. 2026 40HC Freight Rate Trend (Xi’an – Baku/Apsheron/Alyat Port)
The core trunk line has recorded a steady price hike throughout 2026, with monthly 40HC all-in rates listed below:
- March: $6,000–$6,500
- April: $6,300–$6,700
- May: $6,400–$6,800
- June: $6,450–$6,900
- July: $6,600–$7,100
Compared with the start of 2026, the base freight rate of this trunk line has risen by approximately $600, representing a nearly 10% increase, with the most prominent growth momentum seen in July.
3. Deteriorating Transit Efficiency Amid Rate Hikes
The upward freight rates are accompanied by mounting operational pressure on corridor efficiency. In July, the average transit time of the classic Xi’an–Altynkol–Aktau–Alat–Absheron route reached 14–20 days, 1–2 days longer than in June.
The extended transit time mainly stems from volatile meteorological conditions over the Caspian Sea and prolonged customs inspection delays at cross-border ports across multiple countries along the route.
Infrastructure shortcomings have been further exposed amid surging cargo volumes. Long and uncertain port clearance procedures and repeated cargo transshipment operations continuously push up overall logistics costs. In addition, insufficient professional port equipment and supporting hinterland transportation facilities limit container handling capacity. Furthermore, the Caspian Sea faces a shortage of available and modern vessels. These overlapping factors significantly constrain the corridor’s cargo capacity release.
4. Core Drivers of the Freight Rate Rally
The current price surge is not a short-term market fluctuation, but a result of overlapping cost pressures and structural changes in market demand.
4.1 Spillover Effects of Middle East Geopolitical Tensions
Persistent shipping risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have driven growing market demand for alternative Eurasian shipping routes. Although regional conflicts have no direct impact on TITR operations, heightened geopolitical tensions have lifted global energy prices, pushing up fuel costs across the entire corridor. New cargo flows are mainly cross-border trades from China via Kazakhstan and Central Asia to Iran and Afghanistan.
4.2 Rising Rigid Costs of Fuel and Insurance
Fuel prices have climbed steadily since early 2026, squeezing carriers’ profit margins. More critically, mainstream shipping insurers have classified the Caspian Sea region as a war-risk surcharge area. Starting from July, the war risk premium has risen to 280% of the base rate, with the increased costs fully passed on to container freight quotations.
4.3 Active Cargo Diversion by Shippers
To hedge against potential disruptions to traditional maritime routes, an increasing number of foreign trade and logistics enterprises have diverted cargo flows to the Middle Corridor. The reversed supply-demand pattern has transformed TITR from a standby emergency route into a mainstream, regular intermodal corridor for Eurasian trade.
5. Positive Signal: Declining Empty Container Inventory
Against the backdrop of rising freight rates and prolonged transit times, falling empty container stocks along the corridor reflect underestimated market positives.
As of late July, empty container reserves in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan dropped to 3,500–3,700 units, down from around 4,000 units in June and nearly 5,000 units in April, showing a clear downward trend.
The reduction in empty containers benefits from carriers’ intensified efforts to develop return cargoes. Commodities including petroleum coke, urea and grain are transported back to China from Transcaucasia and Central Asia, forming a two-way cargo flow.
This change delivers two key values. First, balanced two-way cargo loading effectively cuts single-container transportation costs, a core indicator of a healthy international intermodal corridor. Second, the long-standing shortage of return cargoes has been alleviated, which is expected to ease container shortages and stabilize market freight rate expectations in the long run.
Nevertheless, the current empty container volume remains relatively high, indicating that full two-way operational balance of the corridor will take time to achieve.
6. Upgraded Strategic Value & Ongoing Infrastructure Investment
Industry insiders predict that TITR freight rates will remain elevated in the coming months, given the persistent complex geopolitical landscape and strong demand for alternative logistics routes.
Kazakhstan’s strategic position as a core hub of the corridor continues to strengthen. Kazakhstan Railways (KTZ) plans to invest $10 billion by 2030 to upgrade TITR-related logistics infrastructure, including the procurement of 6 Caspian cargo vessels to ease maritime capacity shortages.
Multi-country hub upgrading is underway across the corridor. The first phase of the Aktau Port container hub in Kazakhstan, co-developed by China’s Lianyungang Port, has been put into operation. Renovation projects for Baku Port and Georgia’s Poti Port are steadily advancing, forming a complete multi-modal transport node system. The EU has also listed the Middle Corridor as a key cooperation project, promoting its in-depth integration into the Eurasian logistics network.
7. Conclusion
Despite its limited sea area, the Caspian Sea corridor undertakes critical responsibilities for the restructuring of Eurasian supply chains. The coexistence of rising freight rates, prolonged transit times and falling empty container stocks marks a historic transformation of the Middle Corridor: it has evolved from a crisis-response standby option into a core Eurasian logistics corridor with stable capacity and growing cargo volume.
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Harry Ge · Logistics Director
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EW Trans International Logistics Co., Ltd.